ANJ Finds 60% of Online Gambling Revenue Linked to High-Risk Players

ANJ Algorithm Identifies 600,000 High-Risk Gamblers – 60% of Online GGR Linked to Excessive Play

Key Takeaways

• The French regulator ANJ identified around 600,000 players with a high probability of excessive gambling in the second half of 2025.
• High-risk players generated approximately €1.2bn in gross gaming revenue, equal to 60% of total online GGR.
• About 300,000 of those players were classified as manifestly excessive gamblers.
• The new algorithm uses 23 indicators and has been validated against the Canadian Problem Gambling Index.
• ANJ expects operators to strengthen detection and intervention measures, especially ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

ANJ Develops Algorithm to Measure Excessive Gambling

France’s Autorite Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) has introduced a new algorithm designed to estimate and classify excessive gambling behavior across the country’s licensed online market. The system forms part of the regulator’s 2024-2026 strategic plan, which prioritizes reducing excessive and pathological gambling.

According to the ANJ, the algorithm analyzed player account data transmitted continuously by licensed operators during the second half of 2025. Based on this assessment, approximately 600,000 players were identified as having a high probability of excessive gambling. This group represents 8.7% of the total online account-based gambling population in France, including accounts held with FDJ United and Pari-Mutuel Urbain (PMU), the country’s two largest gambling operators.

The regulator reported that the model was developed using scientific research into gambling behavior and validated against the Canadian Problem Gambling Index. Oversight was provided by a scientific committee composed of recognized researchers.

60% of Online Gross Gaming Revenue Linked to High-Risk Players

The ANJ’s findings show that players classified as high-risk generated approximately €1.2bn in gross gaming revenue during the period under review. This amount corresponds to 60% of total online GGR.

The regulator described this concentration of revenue as concerning and highlighted a dual upward trend since 2023: both the number of problem gamblers and their contribution to operator revenues have increased. The figures suggest that a relatively small segment of the player base accounts for a majority of online gambling revenue in France.

Within the 600,000 high-risk players, around 300,000 were categorized as manifestly excessive gamblers. The ANJ stated that identifying these individuals should be considered imperative for operators.

Four Risk Categories Based on 23 Behavioral Indicators

The algorithm evaluates players using 23 indicators and risk criteria. These factors include financial transactions, gambling frequency, use of moderation tools, and player history.

Based on these data points, the system assigns players to one of four groups:

– Recreational players
– Moderate-risk players
– Excessive players
– Manifestly excessive players

This structured classification is intended to provide a more objective assessment of gambling behavior compared to surveys alone. The ANJ stated that the tool complements existing prevalence studies and allows for closer monitoring of operator performance in identifying harmful gambling patterns.

Although similar projects are being explored in other European jurisdictions such as Spain and the Netherlands, the ANJ said its model is currently the first operational tool of its kind available in Europe.

Operators Required to Strengthen Detection and Player Protection

Under French law, licensed operators must identify and support problem gamblers. Required measures include direct player interventions, gambling limits, account monitoring, referrals to support organizations, and account closures where necessary.

The ANJ acknowledged some improvement in operator detection efforts. The number of excessive gamblers identified by operators increased from 31,000 in 2024 to 89,000 in 2025. However, the regulator stated that these figures remain significantly below what would be expected given the size of the player base and prevalence estimates.

Operators will be able to use the new algorithm on a voluntary basis alongside their internal monitoring systems. Nevertheless, the ANJ has indicated that it expects rapid progress in detection standards, particularly with regard to the 300,000 players classified as manifestly excessive.

The regulator also emphasized that identification efforts should extend beyond online channels. It has called on the two monopoly operators to strengthen detection measures at physical points of sale, an objective it has pursued since 2024.

Regulatory Focus Intensifies Ahead of 2026 FIFA World Cup

The publication of the algorithm’s findings comes ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, a period traditionally associated with increased sports betting activity. The ANJ has already warned gambling companies about excessive marketing strategies linked to the tournament.

A 2024 French report found that 15.3% of sports bettors were considered problem gamblers. This statistic adds context to the regulator’s concerns about the concentration of revenue among high-risk players and the potential for major sporting events to intensify betting activity.

By introducing a data-driven assessment tool, the ANJ aims to create a more measurable benchmark for operator compliance with responsible gambling obligations during high-traffic betting periods.

Our Assessment

The ANJ’s new algorithm identifies 600,000 high-risk online gamblers in France and attributes 60% of total online gross gaming revenue to this group. With 300,000 players classified as manifestly excessive gamblers, the regulator has concluded that current operator detection levels remain below expectations.

The tool provides a standardized method to evaluate gambling behavior using 23 indicators and has been validated against established research benchmarks. As France approaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the findings place increased regulatory attention on revenue concentration, marketing practices, and the effectiveness of player protection measures across licensed operators.