Dutch Gambling Tax Increase Delivers Revenue Far Below Forecast

Dutch Gambling Tax Increase Generates Far Less Revenue Than Forecast – Shrinking Market Base Offsets Higher Rates

Key Takeaways

• The Netherlands increased its gambling tax from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025 and to 37.8% in January 2026.
• Additional tax revenue reached about €2 million in 2025 and an estimated €57 million in 2026, far below government forecasts.
• The tax is calculated on gross gaming revenue, which declined due to deposit limits, advertising restrictions, and market changes.
• State controlled operators Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij reported significant profit reductions linked to the tax increase.
• Casino and gaming hall visits fell by around 11% year on year between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026.

Tax Increases Implemented in Two Phases

The Netherlands raised its gambling tax in two stages over a one year period. On 1 January 2025, the rate increased from 30.5% to 34.2%. A second adjustment followed on 1 January 2026, lifting the rate further to 37.8%.

The Ministry of Finance had projected that these changes would significantly boost public revenue. The expectation was that the first increase would generate approximately €108 million in additional revenue in 2025. For 2026, the forecast pointed to an additional €216 million compared with 2024 levels.

However, a joint monitoring report by the Ministry of Finance and the Dutch gambling regulator Kansspelautoriteit, or KSA, shows that actual results fell well short of these projections.

Actual Revenue Falls Short of Government Forecasts

According to the report, the 2025 tax increase produced only about €2 million in additional revenue compared with 2024. For 2026, the additional revenue is estimated at approximately €57 million. Both figures are substantially below the earlier projections.

The authorities attribute this gap primarily to a shrinking tax base. Gambling tax in the Netherlands is calculated on gross gaming revenue, or GGR. When GGR declines, higher tax rates do not automatically translate into proportionally higher tax receipts.

The report also notes that isolating the precise impact of the tax increase from other market developments is not fully possible. Multiple regulatory and market changes occurred during the same period, influencing operator performance and player behavior.

Player Protection and Advertising Restrictions Reduced GGR

Several regulatory measures contributed to lower taxable gambling volumes. In October 2024, new player protection rules introduced fixed monthly net deposit limits. These were set at €300 for younger adults and €700 for players aged 24 and over.

In addition, advertising and sponsorship restrictions were expanded. From 1 July 2024, sponsorship of television programs was banned. From 1 July 2025, sponsorship of sports teams, clubs, and kits was also prohibited. These measures reduced the marketing reach of licensed operators.

The report states that the revenue spike linked to UEFA Euro 2024 faded in the following period. At the same time, continued regulatory scrutiny contributed to market uncertainty. Together, these factors weighed on overall GGR.

Because the tax is levied on GGR, reduced player deposits, lower betting volumes, and diminished marketing exposure directly affected the taxable base. The authorities describe these harm reduction measures as beneficial for consumer protection, but acknowledge their impact on tax income.

State Controlled Operators Report Profit Declines

The tax increase had measurable effects on state controlled gambling companies. Holland Casino reported that profits before corporate tax declined by about €27 million in 2025 and by €54 million in 2026 as a result of the higher gambling tax.

Nederlandse Loterij also expected financial impacts. The operator projected reductions in corporate tax, statutory levies, and profits of approximately €16 million in 2025 and around €34 million in 2026.

These declines partially offset the additional gambling tax revenue generated by the higher rates. In other words, while the state collected more gambling tax, it also faced lower returns from its own gambling related entities.

Land Based Sector Contracts as Visits Decline

The report highlights changes in the land based segment. Casino and gaming hall visits fell by around 11% year on year from the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026. The number of gaming halls also continued to decline.

Some land based operators closed venues or restructured their businesses. Operators publicly cited the tax increase as one of the factors compressing operating margins. Higher taxation, combined with regulatory constraints and lower visitor numbers, created additional financial pressure.

For users, these developments may affect the availability of physical gambling venues and the overall structure of the regulated market.

Charitable and Sports Contributions Largely Stable

Despite lower profits and declining GGR, contributions from licensed operators to charities and sports remained largely stable between 2024 and 2025. Payments to charities increased modestly by 1.8%, while contributions to sports declined slightly by 3.6%.

The report found no robust evidence that the initial tax rise materially affected charitable giving. This suggests that, at least in the first phase, operators maintained similar levels of social contributions despite tighter margins.

Our Assessment

The joint findings of the Ministry of Finance and Kansspelautoriteit show that higher gambling tax rates in the Netherlands did not translate into the expected revenue gains. Because the tax is calculated on gross gaming revenue, concurrent regulatory measures, deposit limits, advertising restrictions, and declining land based activity reduced the taxable base. As a result, actual additional revenue remained far below forecasts, while state controlled operators and parts of the land based sector reported measurable financial impacts.