Gibraltar Introduces Standalone Prediction Markets Regulation

Gibraltar Introduces Dedicated Prediction Markets Regulation – New Framework Establishes Standalone Licensing Category Under Gambling Act 2025

Key Takeaways

• Gibraltar has published a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets under the new Gambling Act 2025.
• The regime establishes prediction markets as a distinct statutory category with its own licensing and supervisory requirements.
• All event contracts must be approved by the Gambling Authority and meet strict criteria on clarity and objective settlement.
• An independent supervisory panel will oversee implementation, with safeguards covering AML, market manipulation and client asset protection.
• Two licences have already been granted, with ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire entering the market.

New Standalone Regime for Prediction Markets

Gibraltar has formally introduced a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets, becoming the first licensing jurisdiction to recognise the vertical as requiring a standalone regime. The regulations were published in the Gibraltar Gazette by the Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry and form part of the new Gibraltar Gambling Act 2025.

The framework adopts what the government describes as an activity based and risk based approach. It regulates prediction markets according to the specific risks they present, including market integrity, participant protection, financial crime prevention, governance standards, operational resilience and objective settlement of contracts.

Minister Nigel Feetham stated that the framework follows months of engagement with industry professionals, prospective operators and investors. According to the government, the new regime is designed to support innovation while maintaining regulatory oversight in areas such as anti money laundering, sanctions compliance and protection of Gibraltar’s reputation.

Licensing Structure and Supervisory Oversight

Under the new legislation, prediction market activity is established as a distinct statutory category. Operators must obtain a specific authorisation and comply with dedicated operational requirements and supervisory standards.

An independent supervisory panel has been set up to oversee implementation of the framework. The authority responsible for regulation has experience supervising remote and technology enabled markets, as well as complex digital environments.

Before the new Act was fully in force, an initial licence had been awarded to ADI Predictstreet under a betting intermediary licence. With the introduction of the Gambling Act 2025, prediction markets now fall under their own defined licensing structure.

The government has reported significant interest from additional applicants, including globally recognised businesses. US based betting marketplace WagerWire has received approval and is on track to become the second licence holder in Gibraltar.

Contract Approval, Market Integrity and Prohibited Events

The 24 page regulatory document sets out detailed requirements for event contracts offered on licensed platforms. All contracts must be approved and certified by the Gibraltar Gambling Authority.

Each event contract must be clear, capable of objective settlement and not readily susceptible to manipulation. Contracts must also align with the regulatory objectives of the framework.

Operators are required to implement systems to prevent market manipulation, insider dealing and misuse of confidential information. The authority retains discretion to restrict or prohibit certain contracts if they are considered inappropriate or contrary to the public interest.

Specifically, contracts relating to criminal conduct, death, serious injury, terrorism, war or armed conflict may be restricted or banned. These provisions are intended to address concerns around integrity and public policy.

In addition to contract controls, the framework includes measures on conflicts of interest, safeguarding of client assets, anti money laundering compliance, financial resource requirements and wind down planning.

International Regulatory Context and Classification Debate

The launch of Gibraltar’s dedicated regime comes amid ongoing international debate over how prediction markets should be classified. According to Minister Feetham, there is no settled consensus globally on whether such markets constitute gambling or financial activity.

In the United States, financial and gambling regulators have been in dispute over oversight of the sector, which has gained popularity through operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket. In Europe, several gambling regulators have taken action against prominent prediction market operators.

In June, gambling regulators from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and Spain initiated coordinated action in response to the sector’s growth. The consortium raised concerns about consumer risks and the absence of safeguards such as mandatory betting limits or cooling off periods.

Separately, the European Securities and Markets Authority reaffirmed its position regarding certain prediction market contracts that fall under its jurisdiction, including binary yes or no contracts with fixed payouts.

Gibraltar’s framework is positioned as an additional regulatory option by creating a bespoke regime tailored to the operational characteristics of exchange based markets.

Market Entry and Commercial Launch Plans

Two operators have already secured licences under Gibraltar’s evolving framework. ADI Predictstreet received its initial licence prior to the full implementation of the new Act. WagerWire, a California based platform, has received approval and aims to launch both B2B and B2C prediction market products.

According to WagerWire co founder Travis Geiger, the company is targeting a launch aligned with the NFL preseason and the start of international football in August. The company plans to operate within the parameters set by the new regime.

For operators and users of crypto betting and exchange style platforms, the introduction of a defined regulatory structure may influence where prediction market products are licensed and offered. The framework sets out clear requirements for approval of contracts, operational safeguards and supervisory oversight.

Our Assessment

Gibraltar has established a formal and standalone regulatory regime for prediction markets under the Gambling Act 2025. The framework introduces specific licensing requirements, contract approval processes and safeguards addressing market manipulation, AML compliance and participant protection. With two licences already granted and further interest reported, the jurisdiction positions itself as an early mover in defining regulatory standards for prediction market operators.