Gibraltar Publishes Dedicated Prediction Market Rules

Gibraltar Introduces Dedicated Prediction Market Regulations – New Framework Separates Platforms From Gambling Law

Key Takeaways

• Gibraltar has published its first standalone Prediction Market Regulations 2026, creating a new legal category outside the Gambling Act 2025.
• Prediction market activity under the new rules is not treated as betting, gaming or a lottery solely due to its characteristics.
• Self-certification of markets is not permitted, and regulators have the power to suspend or prohibit specific markets.
• The framework allows the use of stablecoins for deposits, collateral, settlements and withdrawals.
• Operators must obtain separate approval and maintain a physical presence in Gibraltar.

Gibraltar Establishes Separate Legal Category for Prediction Markets

Gibraltar has released the Prediction Market Regulations 2026, marking the first time the jurisdiction has introduced a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction market platforms. The new rules create a distinct legal category for prediction market activity, placing it outside the scope of the Gambling Act 2025.

Under the regulations, prediction market activity carried out in accordance with the new framework is not to be treated as betting, gaming or a lottery solely because of its characteristics as a prediction market. Instead, these platforms will be supervised under their own set of rules.

According to Justice, Trade and Industry Minister Nigel Feetham, the framework is designed to provide a clear and robust regime for authorisation, supervision, market integrity, participant protection, financial crime controls and the protection of Gibraltar’s reputation. He described the approach as forward looking and tailored specifically to prediction markets.

The regulations position Gibraltar as the first jurisdiction to introduce a dedicated regime for this type of platform. A briefing note accompanying the publication states that internationally there is no settled consensus on how prediction markets should be characterised, and that different jurisdictions may treat them differently. Gibraltar’s framework is presented as an additional regulatory option in that context.

Licensing Structure and Approval Requirements

The new regime requires operators to obtain specific authorisation for prediction market activity. Companies that already hold a Gibraltar gambling licence must apply for separate prediction market approval if they wish to offer such services.

Self-certification of markets is not allowed. This means operators cannot independently approve the markets they list. Instead, the regulator retains oversight and approval authority. The rules also grant regulators the power to suspend any market.

In addition, operators must maintain a physical presence in Gibraltar. This requirement ties licensing to an operational footprint within the jurisdiction.

The publication of the regulations follows earlier licensing steps. ADI PredictStreet became the first company to obtain a Gibraltar prediction market licence in April. WagerWire, a US based bet marketplace, later became the second company to receive a licence in principle. WagerWire has not yet launched its Wire Markets product but has indicated plans to build under the new framework.

Market Integrity and Consumer Protection Measures

The regulations set out specific standards aimed at market integrity and participant protection. Markets must be clearly defined and resistant to manipulation. Regulators are empowered to prohibit markets that involve criminal conduct, deaths, serious injuries, terrorism, war, armed conflict or events with objective settlement.

Authorities may also prohibit markets that pose reputational risks to Gibraltar or are likely to encourage manipulation or consumer harm. The framework establishes consumer protection protocols and financial crime controls as part of the broader supervisory structure.

The briefing note describes the objective as creating a transparent, responsible and future ready network supported by comprehensive regulation. It also notes that the prediction market sector is evolving rapidly and that the rules are designed to be adaptable while maintaining high standards of oversight.

For users evaluating prediction market platforms, the absence of self-certification and the regulator’s power to suspend or prohibit markets are central structural features. These provisions place responsibility for market approval and monitoring with the regulator rather than the operator alone.

Stablecoins Permitted for Funding and Settlement

One notable element of the new framework is the explicit allowance for stablecoins. The regulations permit the use of stablecoins, whose value is attached to an asset such as gold or the British Pound, for deposits, collateral, settlements and withdrawals.

This provision integrates digital asset based funding mechanisms into the regulatory model. For platforms operating in the crypto sector, the formal recognition of stablecoins within the rules provides clarity on how such instruments can be used within licensed prediction market activity.

The inclusion of stablecoins sits alongside the broader goal of expanding Gibraltar’s digital economy. The jurisdiction, a British Overseas Territory, has positioned itself as a hub for various digital sectors, including insurance, and is seeking to extend that footprint further into the gambling and prediction market space.

International Context and Cross Border Recognition

Licensing in Gibraltar does not automatically grant access to other jurisdictions. The regulations acknowledge that the legal status of prediction markets remains unsettled in numerous countries.

The briefing note highlights the absence of an international consensus on how prediction markets should be characterised. In that environment, Gibraltar’s framework is intended to provide regulatory certainty within its own jurisdiction while offering a model that other markets may consider.

Minister Feetham indicated that authorisation in Gibraltar could have validating effects beyond the territory, although the framework itself does not create passporting rights into other countries. For operators seeking international expansion, the practical impact will depend on how other regulators classify and treat prediction market platforms.

Our Assessment

Gibraltar’s Prediction Market Regulations 2026 establish a standalone legal and supervisory regime for prediction market platforms, separating them from traditional gambling under the Gambling Act 2025. The framework introduces mandatory approval processes, prohibits self-certification, grants regulators suspension and prohibition powers, and permits the use of stablecoins for core transactions. With initial licences already issued in principle and in full, the rules provide a defined structure for operators seeking to launch or expand prediction market services under Gibraltar oversight.