US Bill Targets Stock Trading and Prediction Markets by Officials

New Bipartisan Bill Seeks to Ban Stock Trading and Prediction Market Betting by Senior US Officials – Proposal Targets All Three Branches of Government

Key Takeaways

• A bipartisan bill would prohibit senior US officials from trading individual stocks and participating in prediction markets during their federal service.
• The proposal applies to senior officials across the executive, legislative, and judicial branches.
• Violators would have to forfeit all profits and pay a penalty equal to 10 percent of the investment value.
• The bill aims to address what sponsors describe as weak enforcement and limited penalties under current disclosure rules.

Bill Introduced to Restrict Financial Activities of Senior Officials

Congresswoman Maggie Goodlander of New Hampshire has introduced the Public Service Accountability Act, a bipartisan bill that would ban senior officials across all three branches of the US government from trading individual stocks and participating in prediction markets while in federal service.

The legislation was introduced together with Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania. According to the sponsors, the measure is designed to prohibit buying, selling, or trading individual stocks and derivatives, as well as betting in prediction markets, for the duration of an official’s time in office.

The proposal applies broadly across the executive, legislative, and judicial branches. If enacted, it would establish a uniform standard for senior officials regardless of their specific role within the federal government.

Focus on Prediction Markets and Potential Conflicts of Interest

In addition to stock trading, the bill explicitly targets participation in prediction markets. These markets allow individuals to place bets on the outcome of political, economic, or other future events.

The sponsors argue that senior officials may have access to non public information through briefings and policy discussions. They state that such access could create conditions in which officials are able to make financial decisions based on information not available to the public.

Congresswoman Goodlander said that although insider trading is already illegal under federal law, she believes that existing loopholes, limited penalties, and weak enforcement have allowed situations in which officials can personally profit from their positions of trust. She stated that senior officials can attend briefings on matters such as war, tariffs, or major court cases and later trade on what they learned.

For users who follow prediction markets, including those connected to political or regulatory outcomes, the bill signals potential restrictions on who may legally participate at the highest levels of government.

Stronger Financial Penalties Proposed

The Public Service Accountability Act would also change the penalty structure for violations. Currently, the standard penalty for breaking federal disclosure rules is a 200 dollar fine. According to the information provided, no member of Congress has ever been prosecuted under the STOCK Act.

The new bill would require violators to forfeit every dollar of profit from the prohibited transaction. In addition, they would have to pay a penalty equal to 10 percent of the value of the investment involved.

The sponsors describe the existing system as one characterized by weak enforcement and ineffective penalties. By introducing profit forfeiture and percentage based fines, the legislation seeks to create a financial disincentive that goes beyond fixed monetary penalties.

Connection to Broader Efforts to Reform Financial Rules in Congress

The proposed legislation builds on previous efforts by Congresswoman Goodlander to address financial conflicts of interest in government. In September 2025, she cosponsored the bipartisan Restore Trust in Congress Act. That bill would ban members of Congress, their spouses, dependent children, and trustees from holding or trading stocks and similar assets.

Earlier this year, during committee markup of the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act, she also led an amendment to prohibit senior Pentagon officials from owning or trading individual stocks and from participating in prediction markets.

Taken together, these initiatives show an ongoing legislative effort to tighten financial conduct rules for public officials. The current proposal extends the scope beyond specific departments or groups and seeks to establish a comprehensive ban across all three branches of government.

Implications for Political Prediction Markets

While the bill primarily addresses public sector ethics, it directly references prediction market activity. These markets have become a venue for participants to speculate on political, regulatory, and policy outcomes.

If enacted, the legislation would prevent senior federal officials from engaging in such markets while in office. For platforms offering prediction based contracts, this would clarify that certain categories of government officials are excluded from participation.

The bill does not outline additional operational requirements for prediction market providers in the information available. Its focus remains on the conduct of public officials rather than on platform level regulation.

Our Assessment

The Public Service Accountability Act proposes a broad prohibition on individual stock trading and prediction market participation for senior officials across the US federal government. It introduces stricter financial penalties than those currently applied under federal disclosure rules and builds on earlier legislative efforts aimed at limiting conflicts of interest. The measure, if adopted, would establish uniform restrictions across all three branches and directly affect the ability of senior officials to engage in prediction market betting while in office.